BABA Stock Jumps Toward $150—Should You Buy Alibaba Now?

Alibaba Group’s U.S.–listed shares (ticker: BABA) are riding a powerful rebound, up roughly 87 % in 2025, after a string of upbeat catalysts centered on artificial-intelligence and cloud growth. On 25 November the company smashed expectations by posting a 34 % year-on-year jump in cloud-computing revenue to ¥39.8 billion, outpacing the 26 % growth logged in the previous quarter and lifting the stock about 4 % in pre-market trade. Management credited “triple-digit” AI product sales for the ninth straight quarter and hinted that demand is still outrunning supply. CEO Eddie Wu signaled that Alibaba will likely overshoot its already‐ambitious plan to pour ¥380 billion (≈ $53 billion) into AI and cloud infrastructure over three years, calling the target “on the small side” as hyperscale data-center capacity remains tight. While bulls welcome the spending spree as a moat-widening move against domestic rivals and U.S. tech giants, skeptics warn the capex surge could further pressure margins and free cash flow just as the group digs into China’s cut-throat instant-commerce arena. Still, core e-commerce momentum is strengthening. China commerce revenue rose 16 % last quarter as Taobao accelerated user growth, and management said the quick-commerce unit is on track for ¥1 trillion in GMV within three years. Meanwhile, the long-planned restructuring that gave each major business—Cloud Intelligence, Taobao-Tmall, Cainiao logistics, Global Digital Commerce, Local Services, and Digital Media—more autonomy is beginning to crystallize, giving Alibaba strategic flexibility to spin off or list individual units if market conditions improve. From a technical perspective, BABA has reclaimed its 200-day moving average for the first time since 2023, turning prior resistance near $95 into short-term support; traders now eye the $120 zone as the next upside target if volume persists. Options activity suggests growing appetite for January $110 calls, reflecting expectations of continued momentum heading into the March fiscal-year results. Risk factors remain. Beijing’s regulatory stance, a fragile Chinese macro backdrop, and U.S.–China chip-export curbs could all derail sentiment. Yet with consensus calling for mid-teens EPS growth in FY 2026 and a forward P/E still well below U.S. cloud peers, analysts argue the risk-reward skews favorable if the cloud-AI flywheel keeps humming. Bottom line: surging AI-driven cloud revenue, aggressive capital deployment, and resurging domestic e-commerce have ignited fresh interest in BABA stock. As long as Alibaba converts record capex into sustainable cloud share gains while containing margin erosion, the current rally could mark the early innings of a longer-term reboot for one of China’s tech titans.