Amazon Stock Soars Ahead of Q2 Earnings – Is Now the Time to Buy Before the Next Breakout?

Amazon stock (NASDAQ: AMZN) surged 2.85 % to close at $223.30 on Thursday, brushing up against the upper end of its 52-week range and reigniting investor buzz around the e-commerce and cloud giant’s next catalyst. The move extends a three-week rally that has lifted shares roughly 7 % in June and places AMZN within 8 % of its February all-time high of $242.52. Why the momentum is building • Prime Day goes bigger: Amazon confirmed it will stretch Prime Day 2025 to four days (July 8-11), the longest event in the sale’s decade-long history. Management is betting a longer window will juice GMV and Prime sign-ups ahead of Q3—historically a key inflection point for the stock. • AWS accelerates on AI demand: Channel checks show double-digit growth in generative-AI workload spend flowing to AWS Bedrock and Trainium-powered instances. Analysts expect cloud revenue growth to re-accelerate from 17 % in Q1 to 20 %+ in the back half of 2025, supporting margin expansion. • Macro tailwinds: U.S. retail sales rose for a third straight month in May, and falling freight costs are widening Amazon’s North America operating margin, which hit a record 6.2 % last quarter. Valuation snapshot At Thursday’s close, AMZN trades at 36× forward EPS—below its five-year average of 49× but a premium to the S&P 500’s 20× multiple. Bulls argue the multiple is justified by optionality in advertising (now a $50 B run-rate business) and the company’s pivot to higher-margin third-party logistics services. Street sentiment • 44 covering analysts maintain a “Strong Buy” consensus with a 12-month average price target of $246, implying ~10 % upside. • Evercore ISI recently reiterated Amazon as a top mega-cap pick, citing visibility into 15 %+ annual FCF growth from 2025–2027. • Nasdaq contributor Brian O’Connell projects a “path to 2× growth” over three years if AWS maintains a mid-20 % CAGR. Key levels to watch • Resistance: $225 (short-term Fib retracement), then $242.52 (all-time high). • Support: $217 (5-day moving average) and $208 (50-day). Breakout above $225 on heavy volume would open a run toward fresh highs, technicians say. Upcoming catalysts 1. Prime Day data drop (mid-July): Early GMV estimates and new Prime membership figures often move the stock. 2. Q2 earnings (scheduled July 30): Wall Street is modeling EPS of $1.06 on revenue of $155 B; commentary on AI infrastructure spend and cost discipline will be central. 3. FTC antitrust suit update: Any settlement on marketplace practices could remove a headline risk discount. 4. Holiday logistics preview (September): Management’s outlook for one-day delivery coverage and regionalization savings will shape margin models. Is Amazon stock a buy now? For growth investors, Amazon offers a rare combination of secular tailwinds—cloud, digital ads, and AI infrastructure—while trading at a discount to its historical P/E. Short-term traders are eyeing the Prime Day window, which has historically added an average 4.3 % to the share price in the month following the event. Long-term holders, meanwhile, point to management’s pledge to keep capex flat in 2025, setting the stage for free-cash-flow inflection as revenue climbs. Bottom line With Prime Day around the corner, AWS growth re-accelerating, and the stock still below its February peak, AMZN remains firmly on the market’s momentum radar. Investors looking for exposure to e-commerce, advertising, and AI infrastructure may find the current consolidation zone an attractive entry before the next round of headlines hits.