Abraham Accords 2025 Update: Which Countries Will Join the Historic Peace Deal Next?

Subheading: Five Years On—Where the Abraham Accords Stand Today The Abraham Accords, the 2020 framework that normalized relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan, just crossed the five-year mark. Despite regional turbulence—most notably the 2024–25 Gaza war—the agreements have largely endured and, in some areas, deepened. Israeli officials insist that the circle of peace will grow, a view echoed by Washington, which continues quiet talks aimed at bringing Saudi Arabia, Oman and even Lebanon into the fold. Regional Trade and Investment Surge • UAE–Israel non-oil trade topped US $5.6 billion in the first half of 2025, up 11 % year-on-year according to Dubai Customs data. • Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala and Israel’s Clal Insurance closed a US $300 million co-investment vehicle targeting climate-tech start-ups. • Bahrain’s sovereign wealth fund Mumtalakat issued its first “peace bond,” earmarking US $1 billion for cross-border infrastructure that links Gulf ports with Haifa. These capital flows mirror a deeper shift: venture capital firms headquartered in Dubai and Tel Aviv now co-lead 23 % of all Series B rounds in MENA fintech, compared with just 4 % before 2020, the Washington Institute reports. Security Cooperation Hardens Against Iran Joint air-defense drills held this July over the Gulf of Aqaba featured Patriot, Barak-8 and THAAD batteries meshed into a single C2 network—marking the region’s first multilateral ballistic-missile-defense exercise that included Israel, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt. Intelligence sharing has also intensified: an Israeli early-warning feed now queues directly into the UAE’s Falcon Eye satellite system to track Iranian UAV launches in real time, senior Gulf officials confirm. Energy and Climate: From Gas to Green Hydrogen Qatari-mediated cease-fire talks in Gaza slowed, but did not stop, a US-brokered memorandum to export Israeli natural gas via the UAE’s Fujairah LNG terminal starting 2026. Simultaneously, Masdar and Israel’s SolarEdge have begun construction of a 1-GW solar-plus-storage project in Negev, with excess power set to electrolyze green hydrogen for shipment to Bahrain’s Alba aluminum smelter. Analysts view the pivot to renewables as proof that the Accords are evolving beyond fossil-fuel diplomacy toward long-term climate alignment. Tourism Rebounds After the Gaza Shock Visitor flows from the UAE to Israel fell 60 % during the Gaza conflict but rebounded sharply once hostilities subsided. El Al’s Tel Aviv–Dubai route is now averaging 83 % load factors, while Etihad announced a new Abu Dhabi–Haifa seasonal service for the 2026 pilgrimage season. Roadblocks: The Palestinian Question and Domestic Backlash Yet challenges remain. Public opinion polling across the Arab street shows support for normalization slipped from 43 % in 2023 to 28 % in mid-2025, Carnegie Endowment researchers find. Critics argue that the humanitarian toll in Gaza erodes the legitimacy of the Accords and complicates outreach to potential new signatories. Inside Israel, far-right coalition partners warn against territorial concessions that Riyadh may require as an entry fee, adding domestic political risk. What Could Come Next 1. Saudi Deal Still Possible: U.S. diplomats say Riyadh wants a NATO-style security guarantee, civilian nuclear technology and meaningful movement on the Palestinian track—concessions Washington is weighing. 2. Digital Customs Corridor: Talks are underway to create a blockchain-based single-window customs protocol linking Haifa Port to Jebel Ali, cutting clearance times from three days to three hours. 3. Education Exchange: A trilateral UAE-Israel-Morocco scholarship fund aims to place 5,000 STEM students per year in joint degree programs by 2027. SEO-Relevant Keywords and Phrases Abraham Accords, Israel-UAE trade figures 2025, Bahrain peace bond, Saudi Arabia normalization talks, Gaza war impact on Abraham Accords, MENA missile defense cooperation, green hydrogen Middle East, Tel Aviv Dubai flights 2025. Conclusion Five years after their signing, the Abraham Accords are no longer an experiment—they are a complex but resilient architecture integrating economies, militaries and people. Whether the framework expands to include Saudi Arabia and beyond will depend on how its architects balance realpolitik with the lingering Palestinian question. Regardless, the Accords have already redrawn the strategic map of the Middle East, and all indicators suggest that map will keep evolving in 2026 and beyond.